Xmas Symposium 2023 – International Tourism Forecasts and Industry Update

Over 280 international tourism operators have descended on Auckland to attend the annual Tourism Export Council of New Zealand’s Xmas Symposium.

Chief Executive of the Tourism Export Council of New Zealand Lynda Keene said, “The annual Symposium this year will provide updated International Arrival Forecasts 2023-2025 and share insights on key issues affecting New Zealand’s international tourism recovery and operating environment.

As at YE 30 September 2023, international arrivals saw an annual return of 71% compared to the same 12-month period in 2019. This was encouraging and pitched 5% higher than what we were forecasting in June this year. A key driver of the additional increase was due to the FIFA Women’s World Cup event.

Factoring in the September arrival trends, we are forecasting by YE September 2024 New Zealand will see a return of 87% pre-covid arrivals and we anticipate receiving 3.9million arrivals by September 2023 back to pre-pandemic levels. TECNZ provides forecasts on 30 countries.

The current 23-24 season is tracking nicely. We won’t know till February 2024 when the October and November 2023 arrival statistics are released how the season performs. In saying that, indicators from operators suggest it will be a good season and arrivals will track towards the new forecast figures.

We’ll continue to see a strong recovery from Australia and North American markets this summer. Germany and European markets are still a little soft. The UK market has seen a steady return. Asian markets are just beginning to gain some traction and it’s a little early to say how the China market will perform just yet.

The challenge for our recovery is to get a higher ratio of visitors returning as ‘holiday visitors’ compared to the very high segment of visiting friends and relatives VFR travellers. Having a shift from a higher percentage of holiday visitors compared to VFR will help also to see a stronger return in export receipts (visitor spend). We do expect this season we’ll see a swing back to more traditional travel trends now the first wave of revenge travel (22-23) has passed.”

What does the industry hope for? Lots of sunshine, few road closures and few weather disrupts. Last summer the industry was only just getting the season underway when weather conditions put a major handbrake on itineraries with lots of disruptions. We hope for calmer waters this season.

Some of the key issues industry will discuss include health and safety, Immigration NZ and slow visitor visa processing times, Department of Conservation concession processes and the recent change of government and what that might mean for the tourism industry.

Speakers this year providing updates include Air New Zealand, Auckland Airport, Tourism Industry Aotearoa and a Panel sharing sustainability initiatives from the inbound sector.

ENDS

Media contact:

Lynda Keene, phone: 027 66 44 836